As we enter the final stage before getting to the State Tournament, I give me attempt at looking at the matchups and make my predictions based on what I’ve seen this season who will punch their ticket to state this week. This is the part of the season and going forward where teams need to have their first, second and third options that they can rely on to get a basket. Intensity raises to another level and having calming veterans can be the difference in an exhilarating win or a crushing defeat.
CLASS A:
Sec 1: 1 Blooming Prairie (21-5) vs. 2 Fillmore Central (21-8) Prediction: Blooming Prairie
Sec 2: 1 Sleep Eye-St. Mary’s (25-2) vs. 2 Waterville-Elysian-Morristown (25-4) Prediction: Sleep Eye-St. Mary’s
Sec 3: 1 Minneota (29-1) vs. 3 Southwest Minnesota Christian (24-5) Prediction: Minneota
Sec 4:
1 Mayer Lutheran (22-5) vs. 4 Legacy Christian (14-12)
2 Heritage Christian (20-7) vs. 3. Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity (17-10)
Prediction: Heritage Christian
Sec 5:
1 Walker-Hackensack-Akeley (27-2) vs. 4 Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa (17-10)
3 Ogilvie (16-10) vs. 7 Onamia (16-11)
Prediction: Walker-Hackensack-Akeley
Sec 6:
1 West Central (21-7) vs. 4 Hancock (22-6)
2 Henning 26-2) vs. 3 Underwood (20-6)
Prediction: Henning
Sec 7: 1 Cromwell (27-2) vs. 2 Mountain-Iron-Buhl (23-6) Prediction: Mountain-Iron-Buhl
Sec 8: 5 Red Lake (20-9) vs. 7 Badger-Greenbush Middle River (20-9) Prediction: Red Lake
CLASS AA:
Sec 1: 1 Rochester Lourdes (26-2) vs. 2 Goodhue (26-3) Prediction: Goodhue
Sec 2: 4 Jordan (20-7) vs. 2 Waseca (23-6) Prediction: Waseca
Sec 3:
1 New London-Spicer (26-1) vs. 4 Eden Valley-Watkins (21-7)
2 Luverne (19-9) vs. 3 Windom (18-8)
Prediction: New London-Spicer
Sec 4:
1 Minnehaha Academy (18-8) vs. 4 Cristo Rey Jesuit (15-12)
2 St. Paul Humboldt (20-7) vs. 3 Concordia Academy (18-9)
Prediction: Minnehaha Academy
Sec 5:
1 Providence Academy (23-5) vs. 5 Holy Family (13-15)
2 Watertown-Mayer (21-7) vs. 6 Annandale (17-11)
Prediction: Providence Academy
Sec 6:
1 Albany (26-2) vs. 4 Royalton (23-5)
2 Sauk Centre (26-2) vs. 3 Pine City (26-2)
Prediction: Sauk Centre
Sec 7:
8 Virginia (18-10) vs. 4 Pequot Lakes (15-13)
2 Esko (17-10) vs. 3 Duluth Marshall (23-5)
Prediction: Duluth Marshall
Sec 8:
1 Hawley (22-5) vs. 4 Pelican Rapids (27-0)
2 Fergus Falls (24-4) vs. 3 Roseau (22-6)
Prediction: Fergus Falls
CLASS AAA
Sec 1: 1 Red Wing (25-2) vs. 3. Kasson-Mantorville (19-9) Prediction: Red Wing
-Red Wing should be able to have their consistency on both sides of the ball carry them to state.
Sec 2: 1 Marshall (27-0) vs. 2. Waconia (18-10) Prediction: Waconia
-When they played, early in the year at Marshall, the home team came away with a win. I think a change to neutral court swings the rematch in the other direction.
Sec 3: 1 Simley (26-2) vs. 3 St. Paul Como Park (21-4) Prediction: Simley
-Simley has strong players at multiple positions and I expect will wear down SPCP.
Sec 4: 1 DeLaSalle (23-4) vs. 2 Hill-Murray (21-7) Prediction: DeLaSalle
-DeLaSalle knows what it takes to get to state and win at state. I expect that leadership to carry them.
Sec 5: 1 Becker (25-2) vs. 3 Monticello (17-10) Prediction: Becker
-Becker got a taste of State last year and will be hungry to make a deeper run this year.
Sec 6: 1 Academy of Holy Angels (21-6) vs. 2 Orono (14-13) Prediction: Holy Angels
-Holy Angels will rely on their strong guard play to bring them to state.
Sec 7: 1 Hermantown (25-3) vs. 3 Hibbing (16-12) Prediction: Hermantown
Hermantown will have the experience to carry them to state.
Sec 8: 1 Alexandria (21-7) vs. 2 Bemidji (19-8) Prediction: Bemidji
-Every section has some upsets and I see Bemidji busting through to state.
CLASS AAAA:
Sec 1: 1 Farmington (26-2) vs. 2 Rochester Mayo (23-4) Prediction: Farmington
-Farmington was a buzzer-beating defeat away from state last year. This year their lineup is in flux due to injuries, but I feel the determination of this team, as well as Sophie Hart (Jr-All Star 2021 #1) in the middle will be enough to bring them to state.
Sec 2: 1 Chaska (24-4) vs. 2 Eden Prairie (17-11) Prediction: Chaska
-This one I went back and forth with. Eden Prairie played one of the toughest schedules in all the state. That type of experience is not to be overlooked. However, I see the combo of Mallory Heyer (Jr-All Star 2022 #2) and Kennedy Sanders (Jr-all Star 2023 #3) leading them to state.
Sec 3: 1 Rosemount (24-4) vs. 2 Lakeville North (17-10) Prediction: Rosemount
-Rosemount has shown they can hang with the best of the best when they beat Farmington earlier this year. I think they will have the depth to outlast a final push from senior star guard Lauren Jensen (Jr-All Star 2020 #3)
Sec 4: 1 Stillwater (22-5) vs. 2 East Ridge (18-10) Prediction: Stillwater
-Stillwater knows what it takes to get to state as well as make a deep run as they were the runner up last season. I think being that close has them wanting to get another chance at making a deep run.
Sec 5: 1 Park Center (24-4) vs. 2 Centennial (21-7) Prediction: Park Center
The game between these two earlier this season was a case of a double whammy for Park Center. They lost on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer as well as had T’Naye Griffin (Jr-All Star 2021 #) go down to an injury. However, I have seen the sheer force and will of Adalia McKenzie (Jr-All Star 2021 #3) and I expect her to be an unstoppable force bringing her team to state.
Sec 6: 1 Hopkins (27-0) vs. 2 Wayzata (24-4) Prediction: Hopkins
Let’s be clear, beating Hopkins ever at full strength was always going to be an uphill climb. However, if there was one team that seemed up for it was Wayzata who was led by three high-level D1 prospects. With Jenna Johnson (Jr-All Star 2021 #4) going down to a knee injury, I don’t see a team that will stop Hopkins the rest of the way.
Sec 7: 3 Forest Lake (20-8) vs. 4 Cambridge-Isanti (19-9) Prediction: Cambridge-Isanti
-This can be summed up as the upset bracket with both the top two seeds getting eliminated. I am going to continue with the upset theme in this bracket and pick the lower seed to bust through to state.
Sec 8: 1 St. Michael-Albertville (18-8) vs. 2 Maple Grove (23-5) Prediction: St. Michael-Albertville
-This is a rematch for the game to go to state from last season which adds to the excitement of this game. Both these team have strong scoring guards who lead their teams. I expect the pain of defeat to drive the Knights in this game and think they will find their way to the state tournament.
