I think having a July off in 2020 then coming back out this year a full go really wore everyone out. None of us are getting any younger who used to do this when it was two 14 day periods and 7 days off in the middle of July. I wonder how we even did that it sounds awful Like the mischievous taking over the world planning which usually occurs has been on hold after a blur of July. A July which had the in your face implications two years in the making. So like with us back in the swing of basketball year round and pacing ourselves we can really take a breath and try to digest what happened, what is happening, and where we are headed?
I got to spend the weekend at the Prime Event Final in Dallas which was a really good event. I think we are in a full mode of if anything is good we have to trash talk it to say it isn’t good and without a doubt I am guilty of that sometimes but it was really good and I’ll tell you why:
I bet since pre-pandemic it was the first time most of the heavy hitter evaluators were in the gym. The model of McDonalds or Walmart AAU Basketball has made people incredibly rich but isn’t the best model or investment for everyone to get seen. Being in these sort of exclusive 50-100 team events in one facility (on wood courts) is something which has a great deal of value. People go from going to have the opportunity to watch you to essentially having to watch you because there isn’t somewhere else to be distracted to watch. Because of that Dan Olson, Brett McCormick, Shane Laflin, Simmie Colson, Jason Key, Jason Wilkins, OGBR, Mark Williams, and others who I am sure I am missing but again sorry for missing you were in the gym. Honestly the last time I can remember such a crew being in a single place would be USA Basketball or maybe John Lucas in its heyday because you don’t even get that in July when people go place to place. So I know playing in front of college coaches is important but college coaches are really checking their bearings a lot with evaluators, seasoned club people, and just people they genuinely trust. Now since we have been out of the game for a year those people have shrunk and college coaches because they’re not boots on the ground for a year really don’t have as many relationships with people who are in the gym. Couple that with the click bait websites where I’ll trade you a few dollars for a tweet, short write up, or some glimmer of hope my kid is good the media game has really really changed since we played basketball in front of college coaches in 2019.
But I am rested (now that I am an old man having been involved in this now almost 20 years) and ready to process where we are at so we can hit some overarching real thoughts.
#1 – The Mega Elite Teams of the Past Really Are Gone
Whoa Whoa Whoa what about FBC – FBC is mega-elite they are the last frontier for this but the dominate an area which has produced the mega-elite teams of the past before them it was Tennessee Flight, Georgia Metros, GA Lina 76ers, ect that trek between South Carolina – North Carolina – Atlanta – and into Tennessee has always produced one of the to teams in the country usually the only two other areas who’ve produced it have been California (Cal Stars, West Coast Elite when they were with Nike, and when the Flight was pulling Cali kids) and New York ( old Exodus, Philly Belles, Liberty Belles) and then some unified version of the State of Texas – AKA DFW in its heyday, Cy Fair with the Ogwumike’s, ect. What’s the difference now?
In 2021 the state of Texas had around 10 shoe sponsored teams and we can argue how good or not good everyone was but they literally all had players of some level in 2018 (before UAA) they had maybe half that number of shoe teams which doesn’t mean that there were not good other teams but the shoe market has flooded the player market and super elite teams are harder to build because all of these shoe teams have some talent.
This is becoming more and more like boys basketball and what you are seeing is this group of maybe 10 teams max that are the super elite teams in the country and then another 100 who are some degree of good. This year people were scared to death to play their top kids at 17U a lot of teams loaded up their 16U teams so that they could win some and retain their players (aka survive and advance) to avoid the heat of 17U and possibly too much losing. What you are going to see more and more is elite teams are based on one or two elite players because the mega team isn’t out there so if you have that “player” you’ll have a great team that “year” but the consistency will be a little more up and down. Building an elite team is really tough because a kid who was 6th on your team three years ago now is a top 3 player for another shoe team now. People don’t have to wait in line, they don’t have to come off the bench, and really can experience the same level of success different places.
#2 – Who were the 12 Mega-Elite Teams of 2021?
- Cal Stars
- All Iowa Attack
- Minnesota Fury
- Wisconsin Flight
- FBC United
- FBC the Family
- Team Lex
- Arkansas Mavericks
- Sports City U
- Team Takeover
- San Antonio’s Finest
I think the next group would be like
- Mac Irvin Fire
- FGB
- West Virginia Thunder
- Jason Kidd Select
- Arkansas Select
- Below the Rim
- Michigan Crossover
- Exodus
- Philly Rise
- Cy Fair
- Tennessee Flight
Argue Argue Argue these programs had the best 17U teams in the country this year. But they lost of course they lost everyone on this list lost to someone and we all know rosters are as fluid as they have ever been but that’s my list of the top 12 17U teams this year. And if you look at that list even the mega elite teams this year were not untouchable.
#3 – We used to have these really good emerging clubs like you could see it coming – I think that has slowed again because we’re just handing out shoe deals to people who might be good eventually but there is a longevity to like being able to sustain this. If you can do it with a second group of kids (3-4 years plus another 3-4 years) you have a program. The list is shorter and modified but here are some really good emerging programs (again if you’ve done this 100 years youre just good not emerging)
-Jason Kidd Select – So I think everyone was shocked when the Banshees left UA for Adidas BUT what turned out to be the biggest hit or loss was Jason Kidd Select. Now you can argue that maybe Golden City doesn’t become as good as Jason Kidd Select because of Kidd backing the program but Jason Kidd Select vs Cal Stars is going to be a heated rivalry in California for some time. I cant remember the last time where the two best programs in the state were in the Bay (maybe Mark Anger & Cal Ballaz) but those are the two best programs in California right now and two top 20 programs nationally.
– Below the Rim – Somehow silently these guys dominated 16U in the UAA and are sporting tons of Top 25 kids in the country theyre headed to like Top 10-15 program status next year and will be really good. In addition they’ll be one of the biggest draw’s coach wise in the country as well.
– Arkansas Select – Changed their name from Woodz Elite to join UA and finished Top 8 in their first year – They were such a late addition to the UA they probably didn’t get a great chance at recruiting off of it and they’re in decent proximity to Memphis which is a real hotbed if you can get involved there.
– New Heights – Lots of changes in NY over the last couple years from Rock Rosa not running the girls program with New Heights despite being very strong for some time to New Heights boys joining Nike and getting bounced out of UA and Walter Welsh being involved with New Heights as well. They were really good this year but robbed to a degree of being about to show it on a circuit. I think Nike has to pick them up next year.
– Arkansas Mavs – Maybe more of new to the national scene and becoming a national name or brand. Ed Durham has always had good players and teams but its seemed to ebb and flow some not be a constant if they can put together another elite 2022 season they look to really make their mark as an elite program.
-Team Durant – Didn’t really score any major wins but played really good teams this year and have name elite players (they fall into that category of elite players = elite team eventually). They’ll be a year older next year and again I think Nike would have to pick them up … Kevin Durant like owns nike right?
#4 – Final Thoughts on the Prime Event
There were good games with the whole 500 team event thing these days there just arnt as many good games. I think that is what makes a circuit like the EYBL, Adidas, or UA you just know you are promised good games in front of college coaches and those games come right away it isn’t something you wait two pool or bracket games for. So at the Prime Event even if the score didn’t show it there were good games with good players and real competition happening which if you are going to go out and play in August what you need to do.
Its really hard for 2022’s to care in August – You saw this some with some elite teams like the war ended for them on July 25 and they were just done ready to move on to college and visits or just something other than this. We forget despite plenty of aau clubs having family for life on their aau t-shirt you don’t actually stay on an aau team for life. The experience from the club should help set you up for life.
We are back to this games thing. Like good games matter absolutely but you’re going to hear a lot this year about going to some “exposure” fall event where you should play some games. Lord they’re so bad. Save yourself. If you go to the gym and there isn’t someone there to make you better you’re at the wrong gym whether that be a player or coach. Go somewhere and get better. We saw it this summer if you are not like game ready for these viewing events you’ll be playing from behind. The social media videos just cant float you anymore and no one cares how you do at some individual camp in games. College coaches barely care how you do at their camp let alone another camp.
Going to start picking this up weekly or bi-weekly. We are in this age of misinformation so hopefully this is going to allow you to either vetted what you are being told, make you think a little more, or give you a different opinion and make you think a little because if you just go off of social media you’re going to lose your mind.
