Florida is a unique place where you have the best teams in the state for the most part that are not actually competing for a state championship. A handful of “super teams” have basically traded their right to play in the FHSAA state series for the ability to load up their rosters outside the FHSAA rules in an attempt to be nationally ranked, play a national schedule, and have a shot at Geico Nationals which is the unofficial national championship despite several states not allowing teams in their association to even participate in it. Essentially Florida’s top teams are just playing for a national ranking, shot at Geico Nationals, and a “national title”. The interesting part? No Florida High School team has ever been ranked #1 by ESPN, USA Today, or MaxPreps at the end of a high school season so it has never actually happened. We will on a weekly basis towards the end of the season look at who is a contender for that spot at Geico Nationals and scenarios where different teams can qualify. One of the kickers of course in Florida is you have to be a member of the “main” state association which is the FHSAA not the SIAA because the company which runs the Geico Nationals (Paragon Marketing) has a contract with the FHSAA to have the “highest ranked” Florida team and if there is no nationally ranked Florida team it is someone who has won a state title and if you are an FHSAA school and do not win your state championship you cannot attend. An interesting set of rules to say the least. This is especially relevant in 2022 because DME Academy is not an FHSAA member school but has wins over the Top 2 ranked teams in Florida (outside of themselves) in Montverde Academy and Lake Highland (twice). This event for girls (of course less teams than boys) hosts 4 teams opposed to the 10 that get invited for boys. In the infancy of the event previously called Dick’s Nationals two Florida teams had qualified when the event was getting off the ground but in recent years it has been limited to just one team.
Lets look at where everyone stands – Again if DME Academy was an FHSAA member they would be close to locking up a spot at Geico Nationals but our understanding of the rules is they are not eligible. If you want to prove me wrong feel free to email me kallhoop@gmail.com
My Bet as of Today: Montverde Academy – Montverde had a rough christmas dropping games to Beardon (TN) and DME at the Tampa Bay Christmas Invitational. This took a serious hit to their Top 5 National ranking coming into the tournament. MaxPreps now has Montverde 11 Nationally and ESPN has them 14. Montverde has not beaten Lake Highland in a game yet but faces the Highlanders on January 29 ( the last game of the season). This game will be the critical game for Geico Nationals and while Montverde is a heavy favorite to beat Lake Highland Montverde has been upset before and is not playing to the strength of their roster right now. I think Lake Highland loses to Montverde and that basically locks up their spot at Geico Nationals. Although in 2021 Lake Highland beat Montverde on January 6, 2021 and did not play another game until January 29, 2021 basically not allowing any other team to play them until the playoffs. If Montverde loses several more games before the January 29 match up dont be surprised to see that January 29 game come off the schedule as Lake Highland will have essentially locked up their spot at Geico. For the purposes of this article we believe that the game will be played. Looking at Montverde’s schedule originally there was a January game with DME which is no longer listed (not sure why) but you would have thought that if the games were played against DME and Lake Highland and MOntverde won they would be at Geico. Also lets be real Geico wants Montverde in the event with Janiah Barker and the success of the boys program.
Other Real Contenders
Lake Highland Prep – Just like Montverde Lake Highland had a January date on the schedule with DME and despite playing twice in tournaments that game could significantly help their national ranking. Lake Highland will have to figure out to keep or not keep their Jan 29 date with Montverde if Montverde falls before then Lake Highland could rise ahead of Montverde in both polls with a cake playoff schedule to go again to Geico. If Lake Highland is behind them in either poll they could have that January 29 date with a trip to Geico on the line.
St. Thomas Aquinas – St. Thomas is the only other Florida team with somewhat of a national resume with wins over Ely, Beardon, and Central Pointe the Raiders have been limited scheduling wise because of COVID. A win over DME this past weekend (they lost 77-75) could have possibly jumped everyone in the national rankings but it didnt work out that way.
A Long Shot
Ely – Ely has lost back to back games against St. Thomas but the betting odds would that series evening out some more by the end of the season. The Raiders and Tigers have at least 3 more meetings on deck in the BCCAA, District Tournament, and Regional Tournament. The most important of those games would be the regional tournament to advance to the FHSAA Final Four. For Ely to get in they would need to beat St. Thomas and Wekiva in the playoffs and Lake Highland and Montverde would need to both drop out of the Top 25 and Lake Highland would have to not win the state title.
Wekiva – Only loss of the season so far is PIckerington Central who just lost to Montverde by 4 in Ohio. How does Wekiva get in? Montverde loses 2 more games and is no longer ranked, Lake Highland loses 2 games and is not nationally ranked nor wins the state title, and Wekiva beats Ely or St. Thomas in the State Championship game. Wekiva would likely need all 3 to happen. Wekiva had a January date with Lake Highland but it was canceled this past week. Again remember Lake Highland canceled games from January 6 – January 29 last year when they had essentially had all the critical pre playoff wins to go to Geico in 2021. It’ll be interesting to see if that Wekiva game gets back on the schedule.
Maybe the Rule is Wrong?
DME – DME had January dates with Montverde and Lake Highland which disappeared my guess if they were eligible both Lake Highland and Montverde would want to get revenge games to jump them in the rankings and would play those games the fact that they’re gone somewhat supports my argument DME cant go to Geico. DME only has IMG and Central Pointe of relevance on their schedule the rest of the season.
