One of the reasons you should subscribe to this site is the fact that we drop more truth than any other place on the GBB/WBB internet. While we have become part of the establishment, the way I got to this point was by being anti-establishment. This allows me to give you a peek behind the curtain to see specifics of “the game” off the court in grassroots basketball. Today I am going to tell you why rankings ARE important.
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If you open up your Twitter app, you can get a lot of retweets and likes by coming up with some catch phrase tweet explaining why rankings are NOT important. You’ll get a bunch of people piling on in the comments about why they’re not important and it’ll light up your phone for a little while. However, the reality is that, the people who are tweeting are probably not ranked or have had some situation their feelings were hurt by some ones ranking.
Here is why rankings are important
Remember that once you leave high school- this is a business. College coaches’ lively hoods and providing for their families are at stake. Winning and losing is not something coaches can necessarily control in this state of WCBB. If you look at the stats, essentially less than 20 schools have been in the last 20 Final Fours – and even less than that have been to the National Title game, much less won a title.
With this lack of parody, when an AD is hiring a college basketball assistant or head coach, on court success probably matters most but so few people are actually having that on court success. So, how do you measure the ability of an assistant college coach?
Recruiting classes.
Recruiting class rankings are what college coaches stick on their resume all the time. You are as likely to get a better job (and paid more) off a really good recruiting class ranking than an end of the year Top 25 ranking. How those players actually do at the next level is borderline irrelevant, because they never actually stay at a place long enough to go through a four year cycle with players. (The ones who do are the ones who are actually winning at a high level and not looking for a new job.) What makes up a recruiting class ranking?
Individual Player Rankings.
For players, everyone has been shooting around in their front yard (maybe not this weekend because it is so cold) and counted down three … two … one … game winning shot to win the national title. The shots people are shooting to win the national title are likely for the Stanfords, UCONNs, South Carolina’s of the world – a very small select schools. To play at those select schools you basically have to be one of two types of players – McDonald’s All Americans (so ranked no less than the Top 40 Nationally) and maybe a specialist or local player (someone in their region) they really like. (and of course transfers now as well.)
If you look at Top 10, Final Four type programs, those are the ONLY players that they are recruiting. They aren’t getting tricky and recruiting outside the Top 100 to prove that they’re smarter than anyone – no matter how good they evaluate that player to be. Trust me I know from experience. So, if you can’t get recruited by one of those “Blue Blood” programs, what’s the next best thing? Play for the big time state school you live near, or play for a school that plays against them.
That would be that Power 5 group, so everyone who wants to be a power 5 player, that individual ranking is really important. Remember that Power 5 assistant building their resume? Some of those assistant coaches know they’re about to finish 4-12 in their league and the way to build their resume is with a strong recruiting class. Being Top 100 is important because that’s their resume builder.
Not to mention, for a head coach who is going on year 4 or 5 and not winning, a great recruiting class can buy them another year or two of providing for their family.
Again, I have an experience with players where no matter how good they were- and I am talking 1st Round WNBA Draft Picks – that because they were not in the Top 100 some Power 5 Coaches could not move themselves to offer the player and some even acted like it was a waste of their time to even entertain it.
Now that’s not to say that in order to be a Power 5 player, you have to be ranked in the top 100. There are 65 P5 schools and if they average 3.5 players per class per year, that is just over 200 players going to the Power 5 level. But you better believe the last half of the top 100 probably covers 150+ kids if you look across the 5-6 major rankings.
So, lets talk about the actual rankings and what goes into that. How do I get into the Top 100? Some outlets start ranking kids at a national level between 8th and 9th grade. So, they get that first look at a kid in 8th or 9th grade and generate a ranking about how good they’ll get throughout the next 4 years. Science right? Now what goes into that ranking? Well its about how good we think you will be in college. So if you’re tall – big advantage – athletic – big advantage – of course the skill will catch up (right?) or if you’re playing for a particular club program or your parents are famous that means you have been pre-certified to greatness by anointing someone more powerful than said ranker.
ESPN ranks players starting at the end of 9th grade and this is really the public’s standard for rankings because ESPN is ESPN. ESPN’s rankings have been managed by multiple people over the years, and it is now managed by PBR out of Texas.
So if you make that 9th grade watch list Top 25 you are almost certain to be a Power 5 player. USA basketball is likely using this list as a guide to invite the special group of players who go to 16U trials off of this list. If you start in the Top 25 its very hard to work your way out of the Top 100 by the end of your junior year. I don’t have research on it, but my guess is that it almost never happens because that would be the all powerful rankers admitting they were wrong and they’re just never wrong.
The next step you have this intersection in ranking and recruiting in April – July of your sophomore year where you have to go from being just potentially really good to now being being productive. If you’re really tall or athletic, you might never have to be good because you’re really tall or really athletic. We are seeing that with the class of 2024 right now – if you are a Top 25 2024 you have to go out from April – the end of July and be the best player on the floor almost every time you play to hold your ranking.
Next step, that first group of 25 as freshmen expands to 60 after the summer of their sophomore year, so they add 35 kids that were missed, or got better from the first list and that 60 is like the “made it” list. If you are in the top 60 you are for sure a power 5 player and if you are in the Top 25 you stay on that USA Basketball / McDonalds imminent radar.
So on to the point of my article – this is why the rankings matter. If you are not on that ESPN 60 list, or not on other outlets top 60 or 100 list at that point, it’s probably unlikely you are getting a wide swath of Power 5 offers. Look at twitter and social media, Power 5 schools are offering the same 20-50 kids in each class, and they have been anointed as the next group of program changing players.
Circling back, if you start out on that top 25 watchlist as as a freshman, it becomes very hard to fall outside of the Top 100 ever, because of the “group think” and inability to admit mistakes. Schools are 100% offering based on the rankings and I would bet the underclass Power 5 offers are 80-90% kids on those lists.
Once your junior year comes around, college coaches are 100% using those lists to decide who they are going to evaluate that they haven’t seen yet or haven’t offered yet. Unless you are in a high powered league (EYBL, UAA) and go out there and dominate the already anointed players its hard to change what has been already set in stone. There are exceptions – on the boys side, see Chet Holmgren’s meteoric rise from unranked to #1 over like 18 months playing on the Boys UAA.
If you are trying to be a power 5 player, rankings are really important. If you get ranked early, you can ride that wave pretty easily. For college coaches even if they really, really like you, they’re going to check all those rankings and scouting service lists, just to get some reassurance and backup data so they don’t look foolish bringing your name to their head coach.
The Hierarchy of Ranking Importance
The Standard
ESPN Hoopgurlz – No one knows what Hoopgurlz was but essentially the original standard for public National Top 100 LIsts – Its on ESPN, visible, and essentially dictates alot of the McDonalds voting and USA Basketball selecting (Operated by PBR – they have their own scouting service so this won’t be listed twice )
Very Reputable
Collegiate Girls Basketball Report – Dan Olson – I think college coaches really use this as a reference to the ESPN list – Olson has the most successful national college basketball scouting service but the rankings are not for public view but do have influence on college coaches. CGBR previously did the ESPN rankings for the majority of the last decade.
ASGR – Brett McCormick – This is similar to Dan Olson but I would say complimentary at this point still reputable and a gage to reference college evaluations. Does have public rankings at certain stages.
Next Up
Jr All Star – Launched National Rankings in 2021, one of the most visited girls basketball sites on the web with an ever growing group of evaluators and input in every part of the country.
Prospects Nation – The originators of ESPN Hoopgurlz off shoot once they were out with ESPN used as a media platform to promote players at their events and cover basketball nationally.
Prep Hoops – More relevant on the regional and state level but do produce a national ranking and have a very high traffic site.
How do you get ranked?
I think people talk about this all the time and first of all you have to be good against good players. There is no doubt about that, but where you play matters.
Look at the list of rankings above, and how many times last year did you play in front of those groups of people. If you never did you probably aren’t ranked regardless of how good you are. So, finding ways to play in front of those people is important and getting on one list can move you on to another because everyone is referencing the public lists against each other. Being in a shoe league or competing against other ranked players is important and college coaches also communicate with individuals who do the rankings and share opinions so there is some reciprocity on thought.
Do not take this article as a slam on mid majors or other levels of college basketball – there is nothing wrong with not playing in a Power 5 school. But when you are talking about these rankings, kids don’t shoot in their front yard counting down three two one… making the game winner for South Central Western Poly Tech. So, if you want to chase that dream and have the talent, playing “the game” off the court is just as important as what you do within those lines sometimes.
This article is free. If you enjoy it, please consider a subscription to our website that will fund more in-depth GBB and WBB coverage at www.jrallstar.com/subscribe
